Semester 3: Week 12

 

This semester has flown by, it feels like just yesterday we had the orientation meeting. Since there are only two weeks left for the TraIN semester I thought I might as well do them all ahead of time. 

There have been some setbacks on the project, mainly due to me feeling unwell and missing some lab hours but I'm hoping to put in more hours since we are on the right track now. One of the minor setbacks was our data because it wasn't stationary, or in other words unseasonal. We have been looking at an example of an ARIMA model that modeled inflation rates in Poland, which has relatively stable & nonseasonal data, unlike the United States. 

I had assumed that the rates of inflation would be relatively chaotic because I assumed that Poland was also majorly affected by the Russian invasion of Ukraine but I didn't take into account the holidays. There are only a handful of major holidays that Poland celebrates compared to the U.S., so there were some sizeable gaps left when I did my research. Admittedly I am a bit embarrassed that I assumed the data would be similar but this project is just me and Josh working on it and neither of us is Polish so it just didn't occur as a variable to consider. Luckily this mistake will allow me to do better on future projects that involve other countries. 

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